Over the decades we have received many tips and learned many tricks. One of them has really stood out.
When someone tells you "It is on the way" or "It already shipped" or any other such assurance ask for the tracking number. This has been the key to determining truth from fiction for us.
If they refuse or demure then chances are it has not actually shipped. If it has they gladly supply the code so that we will stop hounding them and instead obsessively hit refresh until the package arrives.
We have never once had anyone so brazen as to attempt to create a fake tracking number, but we have had people generate one the instant we hung up and then supply it to us.
Either way, the item was on it's way and we could pass the accurate information along.